Friday, May 26, 2006

A Shrinking, Aging World

“ Birthrates worldwide are dropping not only much faster than expected, but much further. Birthrates continue to decelerate with no bottom in sight. Russia, Japan, Italy, Spain and Germany will have fewer people in 2050 than they do now. And by then the majority will be old, past child-bearing. Twenty “less developed” countries, including China, Chile, Thailand, and Iran have already dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.” (Stewart Brand in Strategy + Business 42: p 78, 2006.)

With lower population growth, aging populations, increasingly urban populations, and greater wealth, health care demand will grow in what right now is ROW to most drug companies.

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